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GoToトラベルと感染拡大の関係 詳しく分析すると・・・(2021年1月25日) - A detailed analysis of the relationship between GoTo Travel and the spread of infection ... (January 25, 2021)

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GoToトラベルと感染拡大の関係 詳しく分析すると・・・(2021年1月25日) - A detailed analysis of the relationship between GoTo Travel and the spread of infection ... (January 25, 2021)

Description (Dublin Core)

This is a news that talks about the Go To Travel. Go To Travel in simple is a plan that the government set up in order for local areas to gain back the economy by supporting up to half the amount of travel fees. Using this A LOT of people traveled around Japan despite being in a pandemic. I always have thought that this traveling plan will cause more trouble, which it did.

I translated the video.

A group at Kyoto University has published a research paper stating that GoTo Travel "may have affected" the spread of the new coronavirus.

The survey was conducted by a group of Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Kyoto University and was published in the international medical journal "Journal of Clinical Medicine" on the 21st.

The group survey analyzed about 4000 people infected with the new coronavirus in 24 prefectures from May to August last year. As a result, it was found that about 20% traveled across prefectures or were in contact with travelers.

What is interesting is the comparison of the "incidence rate" of infected people around July 22, last year when Go To Travel started.

According to the initial 5 days survey when Go To Travel started, the incidence of travel-related infected people has increased 1.44 times compared to the 5 days of the previous week. Furthermore, if the purpose of travel is limited to "sightseeing," the incidence rate jumps up to 2.62 times.

Late July last year is the time of the "second wave" in Japan.

However, the compared 5 days were also days with special conditions. That is, 4 out of 5 days from the start of GoTo were holidays and other holidays. And at this time, it was still before Go To was implemented in Tokyo.

Professor Nishiura et al. paper did not conclude that GoTo Travel was the cause of the spread of the infection, but pointed out that it may have affected it, at least in the early stages.

GoToトラベルが新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大に「影響した可能性がある」とする研究論文を京都大学のグループが発表しました。

 調査は京都大学の西浦博教授らのグループが行い、21日に国際的な医学誌「ジャーナルオブクリニカルメディスン」に掲載されました。

 グループの調査では去年5月から8月にかけて24の県で約4000人の新型コロナウィルスの感染者を分析。その結果、約2割が県をまたいで旅行したか、旅行者と接触していたことが分かりました。

 興味深いのは、GoToトラベルが開始された去年7月22日前後の感染者の「発生率」の比較です。

 GoToトラベル始まった当初5日間の調査だと、旅行に関連した感染者の発生率は前の週の5日間に比べて1.44倍に上がっています。さらに、旅行の目的を「観光」に限定すると、発生率は2.62倍にまで跳ね上がるのです。

 去年7月下旬といえば、国内だと「第2波」の時期にあたります。

 ただ、比較した5日間は特別な条件の日でもありました。それは、GoTo開始から5日間のうち4日が祝日などの休みであったということ。そしてこの時期、東京ではまだGoToの実施前だったということです。

 西浦教授らの論文ではGoToトラベルが感染拡大の原因とは結論付けていないものの、少なくとも初期の段階では影響した可能性があると指摘しています。

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video

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ANNnewsCH

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Youtube

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Date Submitted (Dublin Core)

02/04/2021

Date Modified (Dublin Core)

02/12/2021

Date Created (Dublin Core)

01/25/2021

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This item was submitted on February 4, 2021 by Youngbin Noh using the form “Share Your Story” on the site “A Journal of the Plague Year”: https://covid-19archive.org/s/archive

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