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  2020-04-12

  Diary Entry

  The "lay off" Day 21 We broke quarantine yesterday to visit Malin for her birthday. First trip to Gothenburg in about two weeks. We also met up with Richard Brodie (he had agreed to part with an elderly computer screen), ordered pizza in a restaurant and shopped for groceries on the way home. I notice that the cashiers in the ICA are all behind a massive Plexiglas screen now. We talked about and justified it on the grounds that it was travel within a single region (Västra Götaland) we were not infected (Magdalena and I have been in complete isolation for more than the incubation period) and we would only be a group of 3. We were hand sanitizing the bejesus out of our hands all day and grouped several tasks deliberately to limit the chance of getting infected and then passing it on. Still. A lot of brief social contacts. A LOT. Now we need re-isolate and see what turns up in the little petri dish that is us ... Malin was in great form and settled into her lovely new apartment. As a gift, we had brought the closest thing we have that can pass as a family heirloom. Basically our first piece of furniture, a battered old chest we bought in Dún Laoghaire in 1994 when Magdalena was pregnant with Malin and we we're planning our move to our new apartment in the City Centre of Dublin. Some nice symmetry there. Every 14:00 CET on weekdays we all tune into the Daily Folkhälsomyndigheten Show to be reassured that all is going well. So far so ... uncertain. Deaths in Sweden continue to climb and Stockholm is pretty bad. In terms of EU averages, Sweden in the aggregate is on the upper end of the mid-range, a little worse than Ireland but much better than the UK or the Netherlands. Only Stockholm can be compared to Italy or Spain, but even here, the gap remains wide. Västragötaland and Skåne remain stubbornly flat and intensive care occupations across the country have been flat for weeks with 20% capacity still available. I'd really, really like to see either the death rate or the number of new cases flattening, but honestly, we just are not seeing anything statistically significant yet. The direction on all metrics continues upward and I have to admit that worries me. It seems like every week we're saying, "we'll know NEXT week", then next week comes and things are a little bit worse, but still clearly (apparently?) under control. Another week it is then. The nightmare scenario is that magical tipping point where all the curves suddenly hockey-stick upward. When that happens - and we have seen this in multiple places around the world - you are looking at weeks of chaos, overrun hospitals and rapidly escalating death rates. The only thing that gets things back under control are severe lock-downs. A more intensive Swedish lock-down could be coming if these metrics don't start flattening and then dipping appreciably soon and it's vital to not leave that too late. If we've made a mistake in our approach, we need to change course. That's good science. So, y'know, don't fuck this up Anders. But this is a marathon not a 100 meters sprint. There will not be a vaccine for 12 - 18 months. There may be effective medications, but these will require months to test, manufacture and distribute. Strict, military lock-downs cannot continue for more than a month or two and cycles of lock-downs are surely going to play havoc with peoples mental health and the economy. From that long-haul perspective the Swedish strategy continues to have merit. What are the rest of you thinking? Worried? Concerned we've been too relaxed?